Infectious disease dynamics in metapopulations with heterogeneous transmission and recurrent mobility

Abstract Human mobility, contact patterns, and their interplay are key aspects of our social behavior that shape the spread infectious diseases across different regions. In light new evidence data sets about these two elements, epidemic models should be refined to incorporate both heterogeneity human contacts complexity mobility patterns. Here, we propose a theoretical framework allows accommodating in form set Markovian equations. We validate equations with extensive mechanistic simulations derive analytically threshold. The expression this critical value us evaluate its dependence on specific demographic distribution, structure flows, thus shedding microscopic mechanisms responsible for detriment driven by recurrent patterns reported literature.